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最优自动稳定器

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
Review of Economic Studies · 2020 · Alisdair McKay、Ricardo Reis

中文摘要

失业救济金的慷慨程度和所得税的累进性是否应取决于经济周期的存在?本文提出一个易于分析的模型,其中社会保险发挥着抵御不可保险的收入和失业冲击的作用,同时,匹配摩擦和名义刚性的存在使经济周期伴随效率损失。我们推导出一个扩展的 Baily–Chetty 公式,表明社会保险体系的最优慷慨程度取决于一个宏观经济稳定项。当经济活动水平在衰退期对社会保障项目的响应程度高于繁荣期时,该项会推动慷慨程度的提高。对美国经济的校准表明,纳入宏观经济稳定方面的考虑会大幅提高最优失业保险替代率,但对所得税最优累进性的影响可忽略不计。更一般而言,社会保险项目作为自动稳定器的作用会影响其最优设计。

Abstract

Abstract Should the generosity of unemployment benefits and the progressivity of income taxes depend on the presence of business cycles? This paper proposes a tractable model where there is a role for social insurance against uninsurable shocks to income and unemployment, as well as business cycles that are inefficient due to the presence of matching frictions and nominal rigidities. We derive an augmented Baily–Chetty formula showing that the optimal generosity of the social insurance system depends on a macroeconomic stabilization term. This term pushes for an increase in generosity when the level of economic activity is more responsive to social programmes in recessions than in booms. A calibration to the US economy shows that taking concerns for macroeconomic stabilization into account substantially raises the optimal unemployment insurance replacement rate but has a negligible impact on the optimal progressivity of the income tax. More generally, the role of social insurance programmes as automatic stabilizers affects their optimal design.
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