Does restricting access to credit affect learning outcomes? Evidence from a regulatory shock to microfinance in India
中文摘要
我们利用一项独特的自然实验——2010年印度安得拉邦（AP）叫停所有小额信贷业务这一事件，分析农村经济中的流动性冲击对儿童学习结果的影响。由于该监管措施在全国范围内影响了放贷机构的流动性，我们利用安得拉邦以外各邦在县级层面对该冲击暴露程度的准随机差异进行识别。采用双重差分和事件研究设计，我们发现儿童的学习结果出现了显著且持续的下降。就可能的作用机制而言，我们发现教育支出、私立学校就读、食品支出以及包括母亲就业在内的生计均受到持续的负向影响，尽管这些影响的量级和估计精度随时间推移而减弱。处于成长关键期的低龄儿童遭受了更大的学习损失；相比之下，年龄较大的儿童因高年级阶段教育成本上升，在教育支出和受教育年限上出现大幅下降。此外，不利影响对女孩更为突出。本研究通过记录政策引致的金融收缩对教育的长期负向影响做出了贡献。
Abstract
We analyze the impact of a liquidity shock in the rural economy on children’s learning outcomes, leveraging a unique natural experiment that halted all microfinance operations in Andhra Pradesh (AP), India, in 2010. We utilize quasi-random variation in district-level exposure to the shock in states excluding AP, as the regulation affected lenders’ liquidity nationwide. Using difference-in-differences and event study designs, we find a significant and persistent decline in children’s learning outcomes. As plausible mechanisms, we find sustained negative effects on educational expenditure, private schooling, food expenditure, and livelihoods including mothers’ employment, though the magnitude and precision of these effects diminish over time. Younger children in their formative years show larger learning losses, whereas older children face substantial declines in education spending and years of education as costs rise at higher grades. Also, the adverse effects are more prominent for girls. This study contributes by documenting the long-term negative educational effects of a policy-induced financial contraction.