限制信贷获取是否会影响学习成果？来自印度微型金融监管冲击的证据
Does restricting access to credit affect learning outcomes? Evidence from a regulatory shock to microfinance in India
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Muneer Kalliyil", "affiliation": ["Union University"]}, {"name": "Soham Sahoo", "affiliation": ["Indian Institute of Management Bangalore"]}]
中文摘要
我们分析农村经济中的流动性冲击对儿童学习结果的影响, 并利用了一项独特的自然实验——2010 年印度安得拉邦 (AP) 所有小额信贷业务被叫停。由于该监管影响了全国范围内放贷机构的流动性, 我们利用安得拉邦以外各邦在地区层面对该冲击暴露程度的准随机变异进行识别。采用双重差分与事件研究设计, 我们发现儿童学习结果出现了显著且持续的下降。就可能的机制而言, 我们发现教育支出、私立学校就读、食品支出以及包括母亲就业在内的生计均受到持续的负面影响, 尽管这些效应的量级与精确度随时间推移而减弱。处于成长关键期的年幼儿童学习损失更大, 而随着高年级成本上升, 年长儿童则面临教育支出与受教育年限的大幅下降。此外, 不利影响在女孩身上更为突出。本研究的贡献在于记录了政策引致的金融紧缩对教育的长期负面影响。
Abstract
We analyze the impact of a liquidity shock in the rural economy on children’s learning outcomes, leveraging a unique natural experiment that halted all microfinance operations in Andhra Pradesh (AP), India, in 2010. We utilize quasi-random variation in district-level exposure to the shock in states excluding AP, as the regulation affected lenders’ liquidity nationwide. Using difference-in-differences and event study designs, we find a significant and persistent decline in children’s learning outcomes. As plausible mechanisms, we find sustained negative effects on educational expenditure, private schooling, food expenditure, and livelihoods including mothers’ employment, though the magnitude and precision of these effects diminish over time. Younger children in their formative years show larger learning losses, whereas older children face substantial declines in education spending and years of education as costs rise at higher grades. Also, the adverse effects are more prominent for girls. This study contributes by documenting the long-term negative educational effects of a policy-induced financial contraction.