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非连续的耐用品消费需求与货币政策的有限弹药

Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy
Econometrica · 2021 · Alisdair McKay、Johannes Wieland

中文摘要

主流的新维克塞尔主义观点认为,中央银行的目标是追踪自然利率(r*),而自然利率本身在很大程度上外生于货币政策。我们使用一个包含固定成本的耐用品消费需求模型,对这一观点提出挑战。在该模型中,扩张性货币政策促使家庭提前购买耐用品。这使总需求面临跨期权衡:鼓励家庭在当前增加耐用品持有量,会使未来购买耐用品的家庭数量减少。为了支撑未来的需求,利率必须保持在低位,因此当前的宽松货币政策会降低未来的自然利率(r*)。我们表明,这一机制在解释大衰退后实际利率和自然利率(r*)持续处于低位的现象方面,在定量上具有重要作用。

Abstract

The prevailing neo‐Wicksellian view holds that the central bank's objective is to track the natural rate of interest ( r * ), which itself is largely exogenous to monetary policy. We challenge this view using a fixed‐cost model of durable consumption demand, in which expansionary monetary policy prompts households to accelerate purchases of durable goods. This yields an intertemporal trade‐off in aggregate demand as encouraging households to increase durable holdings today leaves fewer households acquiring durables going forward. Interest rates must be kept low to support demand going forward, so accommodative monetary policy today reduces r * in the future. We show that this mechanism is quantitatively important in explaining the persistently low level of real interest rates and r * after the Great Recession.
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