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晋升阶梯:征兵与代际流动

Moving up the ranks: Conscription and intergenerational mobility
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Diego Ramos-Toro、Juan Pedro Ronconi

中文摘要

本文考察服兵役能否促进发展中国家的代际流动。我们使用3037名经历征兵的男性的调查数据,将受访者的社会经济和教育结果与其父母进行比较。利用抽签随机分配征兵资格这一特点,我们发现,服役提高了社会经济地位较低家庭出身者的向上流动性,而对家庭背景较优越者没有影响。服兵役对流动性的积极效应在非民主政权或战时会消失,这凸显了稳定的制度环境对于军队促进流动性的重要性。

Abstract

This paper examines whether military service can promote intergenerational mobility in developing countries. We use survey data from 3037 men exposed to conscription to compare respondents’ socioeconomic and educational outcomes with those of their parents. Exploiting the random assignment of conscription by lottery, we show that serving increases upward mobility for individuals from low-SES backgrounds, with no effects for those from more privileged ones. The positive effects of military service on mobility disappear under non-democratic regimes or wartime, underscoring the importance of stable institutional contexts for the military to enhance mobility.
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