晋升排位：征兵与代际流动性
Moving up the ranks: Conscription and intergenerational mobility
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Diego Ramos-Toro", "affiliation": ["Dartmouth College"]}, {"name": "Juan Pedro Ronconi", "affiliation": ["Universidad de Los Andes, Chile"]}]
中文摘要
本文考察兵役是否能够促进发展中国家的代际流动。我们使用3037名面临征兵的男性的调查数据, 将受访者的社会经济与教育结果与其父母进行比较。利用抽签征兵的随机分配, 我们发现, 服役提高了低社会经济地位背景个体的向上流动, 而对来自较优越背景的个体没有影响。兵役对流动性的正向影响在非民主政体或战时消失, 凸显了稳定的制度环境对于军队增强流动性的重要性。
Abstract
This paper examines whether military service can promote intergenerational mobility in developing countries. We use survey data from 3037 men exposed to conscription to compare respondents’ socioeconomic and educational outcomes with those of their parents. Exploiting the random assignment of conscription by lottery, we show that serving increases upward mobility for individuals from low-SES backgrounds, with no effects for those from more privileged ones. The positive effects of military service on mobility disappear under non-democratic regimes or wartime, underscoring the importance of stable institutional contexts for the military to enhance mobility.