分配式国民账户:美国的估算方法与结果*

中文摘要

本文结合税收、调查与国民账户数据,估计了1913年以来美国国民收入的分配状况。我们的分配式国民账户覆盖了100%的国民收入,使我们能够计算与宏观经济增长相一致的收入分布各分位数的增长率。我们同时估计了税前与税后收入的分配,从而能够全面考察政府再分配如何影响不平等。1980年至2014年间,成年人人均税前实际国民收入增长了60%,但我们发现,收入分布中底层50%群体的这一收入停滞在每年约16,000美元的水平。中产阶级——位于中位数至第90百分位数之间的成年人——的税前收入自1980年以来增长了40%,增速快于税收与调查数据所显示的水平,这在很大程度上源于免税附加福利的增加。高收入群体的收入迅猛增长。顶层收入的飙升最初是一种劳动收入现象,但自2000年以来主要是一种资本收入现象。政府仅抵消了不平等加剧中的一小部分。收入的性别差距缩小缓解了成年人之间不平等的上升,但随着在劳动收入分布中位置的上移,女性占比急剧下降,2014年收入最高0.1%群体中女性占比仅为11%。

Abstract

This article combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60% from 1980 to 2014, but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50% of the distribution at about $16,000 a year. The pretax income of the middle class—adults between the median and the 90th percentile—has grown 40% since 1980, faster than what tax and survey data suggest, due in particular to the rise of tax-exempt fringe benefits. Income has boomed at the top. The upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000. The government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality. The reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults, but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution, and is only 11% in the top 0.1% in 2014.