What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans
中文摘要
我们利用有关假设情景下支出的调查问题，考察有助于区分不同消费理论的消费倾向特征。我们发现：（1）对未预期收益的反应存在极大的异质性（要么为零，要么为正值且幅度较大）；（2）反应随收益规模增大而增强，这由支出调整的广延边际驱动；（3）对损失的反应比对收益的反应大得多，也更普遍；（4）即使对收益反应较大的人，也不会对有关未来收益的消息作出反应。这四项发现表明，可支配资源获取受限以及消费调整中的摩擦，是消费行为的重要决定因素。我们还发现：（5）家庭不会对提供一年期无息贷款作出反应，这表明上述现象并非短期信贷约束的结果；（6）人们确实会因有关未来损失的消息而削减支出，这表明上述现象也并非短视的结果。一个经过校准的预防性储蓄模型，若包含改变消费的效用成本，并具有足够比例的低财富家庭，就能够解释消费倾向在广延边际和集约边际上的这些特征。
Abstract
Abstract We use survey questions about spending in hypothetical scenarios to investigate features of propensities to consume that are useful for distinguishing between consumption theories. We find that (1) responses to unanticipated gains are vastly heterogeneous (either zero or substantially positive); (2) responses increase in the size of the gain, driven by the extensive margin of spending adjustments; (3) responses to losses are much larger and more widespread than responses to gains; and (4) even those with large responses to gains do not respond to news about future gains. These four findings suggest that limited access to disposable resources, and frictions in adjusting consumption, are important determinants of consumption behaviour. We also find that (5) households do not respond to the offer of a one-year interest-free loan, suggesting that this is not a consequence of short-term credit constraints; and (6) people do cut spending in response to news about future losses, suggesting that neither is this a consequence of myopia. A calibrated precautionary savings model with utility costs of changing consumption, and a sufficient fraction of low-wealth households, can account for these features of propensities to consume on both the extensive and intensive margins.