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极长时期内的代际流动:佛罗伦萨,1427—2011年

Intergenerational Mobility in the Very Long Run: Florence 1427–2011
Review of Economic Studies · 2020 · Guglielmo Barone、Sauro Mocetti

中文摘要

我们考察极长时期内的代际流动,研究对象是相隔六个世纪的世代。我们利用了一个独特的数据集,其中包含1427年居住在意大利佛罗伦萨市的所有居民的个体层面详细信息。通过姓氏匹配,我们将这些个体与2011年居住在佛罗伦萨的假定后代关联起来。我们发现,长期劳动收入弹性约为0.04;我们还发现,实物财富继承的作用更强,并有证据表明,从事某些精英职业的状态具有跨代持续性。在考虑这些假定关联的质量,并处理匹配过程背后潜在的选择性偏误后,我们的结果仍然成立。最后,我们结合现有证据讨论研究结果,并提出,前工业社会中社会经济地位近乎不流动的状态以及多代效应的存在,可能解释祖先社会经济地位为何具有长久影响。

Abstract

Abstract We examine intergenerational mobility in the very long run, across generations that are six centuries apart. We exploit a unique dataset containing detailed information at the individual level for all people living in the Italian city of Florence in 1427. These individuals have been associated, using their surnames, with their pseudo-descendants living in Florence in 2011. We find that long-run earnings elasticity is about 0.04; we also find an even stronger role for real wealth inheritance and evidence of persistence in belonging to certain elite occupations. Our results are confirmed when we account for the quality of the pseudo-links and when we address the potential selectivity bias behind the matching process. Finally, we frame our results within the existing evidence and argue that the quasi-immobility of preindustrial society and the existence of multigenerational effects might explain the long-lasting effects of ancestors’ socioeconomic status.
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