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技能型移民是否与本地工人竞争?

Do Skilled Migrants Compete with Native Workers?
Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · Sara Signorelli

中文摘要

技能型移民被视为应对技能短缺的一种解决方案,但其对面临竞争加剧的本地工人的影响仍存在争议。为考察更长期内替代本地工人的可能性,本文利用法国2008年的一项改革,该改革便利了在清单所列的紧缺职业中雇用外国工人。分析基于行政数据,并采用双重差分方法。结果表明,该改革成功增加了移民雇用人数,而未影响本地就业。此外,移民的职业工资所承受的下行压力远大于本地工人,这表明此类政策在长期内可以成为一种可行的解决方案。

Abstract

Abstract Skilled migration is seen as a solution against skill shortages, but its impact on native workers facing increased competition remains debated. To investigate the longer-term potential for displacement, this paper exploits a 2008 reform in France facilitating the hiring of foreign workers within a list of tight occupations. The analysis relies on administrative data and applies a difference-in-differences approach. Results show that the reform successfully boosted migrant hires without affecting native employment. In addition, the negative pressure on occupational wages is much larger among migrants than natives, suggesting that such policies can be a viable solution in the long run.
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