地缘政治经济学框架
A Framework for Geoeconomics
Econometrica · 2026 · [{"name": "Christopher Clayton", "affiliation": ["Yale University"]}, {"name": "Matteo Maggiori", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Jesse Schreger", "affiliation": ["Columbia College - South Carolina"]}]
中文摘要
各国政府利用本国在金融与贸易关系中形成的经济实力来实现地缘政治与经济目标。我们提出一个模型，刻画地缘经济权力的来源及其运用方式。这种权力的来源在于，霸权国能够跨越彼此分立的多种经济关系去协调威胁，以此作为对外国实体施加执行的手段。霸权国运用这种权力，要求目标实体采取代价高昂的行动，包括加价、进口限制、关税与政治让步。霸权国利用其权力改变目标实体的行为，以将全球均衡操纵至对自身有利的方向，并借此增强自身权力。一个部门之所以具有战略性，要么在于它有助于霸权国形成威胁，要么在于它能够通过投入产出放大效应操纵世界均衡。霸权国充当全球执行者，从而为世界经济增添价值，但同时又通过将均衡扭曲至对己有利而破坏价值。
Abstract
Governments use their countries' economic strength from financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. We provide a model of the sources of geoeconomic power and how it is wielded. The source of this power is the ability of a hegemonic country to coordinate threats across disparate economic relationships as a means of enforcement on foreign entities. The hegemon wields this power to demand costly actions out of the targeted entities, including mark‐ups, import restrictions, tariffs, and political concessions. The hegemon uses its power to change targeted entities' activities to manipulate the global equilibrium in its favor and increase its power. A sector is strategic either in helping the hegemon form threats or in manipulating the world equilibrium via input‐output amplification. The hegemon acts a global enforcer, thus adding value to the world economy, but destroys value by distorting the equilibrium in its favor.