撒哈拉以南非洲的族群多样性与冲突：来自难民接收地区的证据

中文摘要

本研究探讨2005年至2016年间被迫迁移如何影响撒哈拉以南非洲23个国家的族群多样性与冲突。我们利用联合国难民署关于难民营位置的数据，预测当地族群多样性的变化。通过整合非洲晴雨表（Afrobarometer）与族群权力关系—难民族群（Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees）数据集，我们分析难民引致的族群多样性与冲突发生之间的关联。研究结果表明，难民引致的族群极化增加了当地暴力的风险，而族群分化则具有缓解作用。值得注意的是，难民数量并不影响冲突发生的可能性；相反，族群多样性的变化，尤其是族群极化，是冲突的主要驱动因素。

Abstract

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.