机动车尾气排放标准与中国城市空气质量

中文摘要

本研究量化了提高低排放乘用车占比对中国城市空气质量的影响。我们估计了一个两阶段最小二乘（2SLS）模型，以2019年国家第六阶段机动车排放标准的分阶段实施作为车队构成的工具变量。研究结果表明，符合更严格机动车尾气排放标准的车辆占比每增加1%，会使三项空气污染指标的平均污染物浓度下降0.083%。此外，我们的测算表明，减少颗粒物所带来的货币化健康收益是遵守更严格尾气排放标准所需成本的两倍。

Abstract

This study quantifies the effects of increasing the share of low-emission passenger vehicles on urban air quality in China. We estimate a two-stage least squares model, using the phased implementation of National Vehicle Emission Standards VI in 2019 as an instrumental variable for fleet composition. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in the share of vehicles compliant with the stricter vehicle exhaust standards leads to a 0.083% reduction in the average pollutant concentration across three measures of air pollution. Furthermore, our calculation suggests that the monetized health benefits from reductions in particulate matter outweigh the costs of adhering to stricter exhaust standards by a factor of two.