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人民公社的废除与中国农村生育率下降

The abolition of People’s Communes and fertility decline in rural China
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Shuo Chen、Bin Xie

中文摘要

本研究考察了20世纪80年代初人民公社的废除对中国农村生育率的影响。利用农业去集体化的交错(分批)实施,我们表明,去集体化导致了农村生育率显著下降,且这一效应独立于计划生育政策的影响。公社时期平均主义程度较高的县,在去集体化后生育率下降幅度更大,这表明平均主义收入分配的消除是此次生育率下降背后的关键机制。我们未发现证据支持以下替代假说:生育率下降是由于去集体化后农业生产率提高所带来的生育机会成本上升。

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the abolition of People’s Communes in the early 1980s on rural fertility in China. Exploiting the staggered implementation of agricultural decollectivization, we show that decollectivization led to a significant decline in rural fertility, independent of the impact of family planning policies. Counties with higher levels of egalitarianism during the commune period experienced a sharper fertility decline following decollectivization, indicating that the elimination of egalitarian income distribution is the key mechanism behind this fertility decline. We find no evidence supporting the alternative hypothesis that the fertility decline was due to increased opportunity costs of childbearing associated with higher agricultural productivity after decollectivization.
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