庇护主义环境下向市长直选的转型：对公共支出与服务供给的因果效应

中文摘要

我们考察了印度尼西亚在全国性重大民主改革期间，向市长直选的转型对地区支出与家庭公共服务可及性的影响。我们利用地方直选可视为外生的时间安排，设定了一个交错双重差分模型，并采用最新方法进行估计，以期可信地识别因果效应。我们发现，向直选的转型导致选举前年份和选举后年份的资本支出均出现大幅下降，且这一结果具有一致性。我们还发现，该转型导致选举后时期家庭服务可及性中度下降。选举前的资本支出效应既取决于转型相关的普遍扰动，也取决于新出现的庇护主义。服务可及性效应完全由各地区庇护主义程度的相对差异所解释。我们得出结论，印度尼西亚的地方民主转型对关键支出和服务结果的影响大多为负面，至少在短期内以及在庇护主义做法尤为突出的那些地区是如此。 • 我们研究了印度尼西亚市长直选的影响。 • 我们发现，直选导致地方资本支出大幅下降。 • 我们发现，直选导致服务可及性小幅下降。 • 我们证明，庇护主义解释了最重要的效应。

Abstract

We examine the impact of the transition to direct mayoral elections on district spending and household public service access in Indonesia during a period of momentous national democratic reform. We leverage the arguably exogenous timing of direct local elections to specify a staggered difference-in-differences model, which we estimate using the latest methods to plausibly identify causal effects. We find that the transition to direct elections led to a consistent and large decline in capital spending in both pre- and post-election years. We also determine that the transition resulted in a moderate decrease in household service access in the post-election period. Pre-election capital spending impacts are a function of both general disruptions associated with the transition and emerging clientelism. Service access effects are completely explained by the relative extent of clientelism across districts. We conclude that the local democratic transition in Indonesia had a mostly negative impact on key spending and service outcomes, at least in the short-run and for those districts in which clientelistic practices were especially pronounced. • We study the impact of direct mayoral elections in Indonesia. • We find that direct elections led to a large decrease in local capital spending. • We find that direct elections led to a small decrease in service access. • We demonstrate that clientelism explains most important effects.