Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?
中文摘要
本文考察2002—03年厄尔尼诺气候模式引发的强降雨如何影响厄瓜多尔企业的生产与市场状况。我们发现，受影响企业的收益生产率（TFP-R）与加成率均下降。其原因在于生产效率损失（TFP-Q）以及初始效率较低企业边际成本的上升。对于初始效率较高的企业，产品需求下降导致产品产出价格下降，从而解释了冲击对其的影响。然而，该冲击既不影响初始效率较低企业的市场份额，也不影响其存活率。因此，厄瓜多尔工业的生产率分布未受该冲击影响。我们还发现，冲击发生后不久，生产与市场需求即迅速恢复。2002—03年的影响与1997—98年降雨冲击的影响相似。以收益生产率（TFP-R）而非生产效率对企业进行区分表明，市场地位较好（较差）的企业能够更多（更少）地缓解冲击的负面影响。
Abstract
This paper investigates how heavy rainfalls resulting from the 2002–03 El Niño climate pattern affect Ecuadorian firms' production and market conditions. We show that affected firms' revenue productivity (TFP-R) and markups decrease. This is due to production efficiency losses (TFP-Q) and higher marginal costs of initially less efficient firms. Decreased product output prices in response to lower product demand explain the impact on initially more efficient firms. However, the shock neither affects market shares nor survival rates of initially less efficient firms. Consequently, the productivity distribution of Ecuador's industry is not affected by the shock. We also show a swift recovery of production and market demand in the immediate aftermath of the shock. Impacts in 2002–03 are like those of the 1997–98 rainfall shock. Differentiating firms by their TFP-R rather than their production efficiency indicates firms with better (worse) market positions can mitigate the negative impacts of the shock more (less).