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极化、效价与政策竞争

Polarization, Valence, and Policy Competition
AER: Insights · 2022 · Peter E. Buisseret、Richard Van Weelden

中文摘要

我们研究两名谋求当选的候选人之间的选举:两人在一个党派议题维度上存在极化,且其中一人具有效价优势。候选人通过在第二个议题维度上选择政策展开竞争,而选民在该维度上的偏好具有不确定性。既有研究预测,效价较低的候选人会采取非中间立场的政策,以与更强的对手形成区别,从而“为求翻盘而赌博”。我们表明,在高度极化的环境中,这一预测发生反转:强势候选人选择的政策与选民偏好的契合度更低,却仍以更高的概率赢得选举。

Abstract

We study an election between two office-seeking candidates who are polarized along a partisan issue dimension when one candidate has a valence advantage. The candidates compete by choosing policy on a second issue dimension about which voters’ preferences are uncertain. Existing work predicts that the low-valence candidate “gambles for resurrection” by adopting non-centrist policies in order to differentiate from a stronger opponent. We show that this prediction is reversed in a highly polarized environment: the strong candidate chooses policies less aligned with the electorate but nonetheless wins the election with higher probability. (JEL D11, D72)
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