新兴经济体的气候政策、劳动力市场与宏观经济结果
Climate policies, labor markets, and macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Alan Finkelstein Shapiro", "affiliation": ["Cambridge Systematics (United States)", "Medford Radiology Group"]}, {"name": "Victoria Nuguer", "affiliation": ["Tecnológico Nacional de México"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究新兴经济体能源部门碳税对劳动力市场和宏观经济的影响。我们构建了一个包含污染外部性、内生绿色能源采用、领薪企业进入以及内生自雇的宏观搜寻模型。碳税提高了能源部门的绿色技术采用和绿色能源占比。在将碳税收入转移给家庭的基准收入循环方案下, 碳税推高了能源价格, 导致领薪企业进入和就业创造减少、自雇和劳动力参与率上升, 最终造成福利与GDP损失。进一步的模型实验表明, 将自雇作为一个独立的就业类别纳入会显著放大这些损失。然而, 内生绿色技术采用可以大幅限制这些损失的规模。若将碳税收入用于支持绿色能源投资, 则可以在减少自雇的同时降低能源价格, 并实现净福利与产出的收益。
Abstract
We study the labor market and macroeconomic effects of carbon taxation in the energy sector in emerging economies. We build a macro-search model with pollution externalities, endogenous green-energy adoption, salaried-firm entry, and endogenous self-employment. The carbon tax increases green technology adoption in the energy sector and the share of green energy. Under a baseline revenue recycling scheme that transfers the carbon tax revenue to households, the tax raises energy prices, leading to a reduction in salaried firm and job creation, and an increase in self-employment and labor force participation that ultimately generate welfare and GDP losses. Additional model experiments show that the presence of self-employment as a distinct employment category significantly amplifies these losses. However, endogenous green technology adoption can drastically limit the magnitude of these losses. Using the carbon tax revenue to support green energy investment can deliver a decline in energy prices and net welfare and output gains while reducing self-employment.