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生产率冲击、长期合同与劳动收入动态

Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts, and Earnings Dynamics
American Economic Review · 2022 · Neele Balke、Thibaut Lamadon

中文摘要

本文考察雇主特定和劳动者特定的生产率冲击如何传导至劳动收入和就业。我们构建了一个均衡搜寻模型,并刻画了企业提供的最优合同。风险中性的企业为风险规避的劳动者提供针对冲击的部分保险,并提供或有合同:支付在状况良好时后置,在状况不佳时前置。我们使用瑞典的雇主—雇员匹配数据估计该模型。企业吸收劳动者层面和企业层面的持久性冲击,这两类冲击向劳动收入的传导率分别为26%和10%。我们评估了再分配政策的效果,发现政府保险因挤出企业保险而使其提供的保障有30%被抵消。

Abstract

This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. We develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. Risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. The model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. Firms absorb persistent worker and firm shocks, with respective passthrough values of 26 and 10 percent. We evaluate the effects of redistributive policies and find that 30 percent of government insurance is undone by crowding out firm insurance. (JEL D86, H23, J24, J31, J41, J62)
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