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冷战是否在非洲催生了发展集群?

Did the Cold War produce development clusters in Africa?
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Paul Castañeda Dower、Gunes Gokmen、Michel Le Breton、Shlomo Weber

中文摘要

我们考察冷战时期的阵营归属对非洲发展的持久影响。为克服冷战期间国际联盟关系不明确且相互依存所带来的实证挑战,我们引入一个社会互动的非合作博弈。利用预先确定的国家层面特征构建收益,我们识别出将非洲大陆划分为两个阵营的唯一均衡划分。随后,我们根据这一划分对联合国投票模式的预测,确定各国的阵营归属。我们的实证结果表明,如今西方阵营与东方阵营的非洲国家之间不存在收入差异。然而,两者的发展路径反映了冷战时期的意识形态:与归属东方阵营的非洲国家相比,归属西方阵营的非洲国家不平等程度更高、金融发展水平更高、民主程度更高,但基础设施较少。

Abstract

We examine the lasting impact of Cold War alignment on African development. To overcome the empirical challenge of ambiguous and interdependent international alliances during the Cold War, we introduce a non-cooperative game of social interactions. Using pre-determined, country-level characteristics to construct payoffs, we identify a unique two-bloc equilibrium partition of the continent. We then assign bloc alignments based on how the partition predicts UN voting patterns. Our empirical results indicate no income differences today between the Western and the Eastern blocs. However, their development paths reflect Cold War ideologies: Western-aligned African countries have greater inequality, financial development, and democracy, but lesser infrastructure, compared to Eastern-aligned ones.
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