中文摘要
本文表明，卢旺达近年暴力的强度可以追溯至其前殖民时期国家的最初建立。早一个世纪被纳入中央集权统治的村庄，在1994年由国家组织的种族灭绝期间所经历的暴力程度增加了一倍。利用各地与早期首都尼安扎（Nyanza）邻近程度差异得到的工具变量估计结果提示，这些效应具有因果性。在种族灭绝之前，当国家面临叛军袭击时，国家统治存在时间越长的地方，暴力程度越低。利用多个来源的数据，包括一项在一条已废弃的历史边界两侧开展的实地实验室实验，我表明，历史上的国家所产生的影响主要通过文化传承的服从规范得以维系。前殖民时期国家的持续效应与政府政策相互作用：在国家发展较早的地方，当卢旺达政府动员开展大规模杀戮时，暴力程度更高；当政府寻求和平时，暴力程度则更低。
Abstract
Abstract This article shows that the intensity of violence in Rwanda’s recent past can be traced back to the initial establishment of its pre-colonial state. Villages that were brought under centralized rule one century earlier experienced a doubling of violence during the state-organized 1994 genocide. Instrumental variable estimates exploiting differences in the proximity to Nyanza—an early capital—suggest that these effects are causal. Before the genocide, when the state faced rebel attacks, with longer state presence, violence is lower. Using data from several sources, including a lab-in-the-field experiment across an abandoned historical boundary, I show that the effect of the historical state is primarily sustained by culturally transmitted norms of obedience. The persistent effect of the pre-colonial state interacts with government policy: where the state developed earlier, there is more violence when the Rwandan government mobilized for mass killing and less violence when the government pursued peace.