中文摘要
本文首次对刑事司法系统中广泛采用且节省成本的转处做法提供因果估计。转处是一种为犯罪人提供第二次机会、使其得以避免留下犯罪记录的干预措施。我们利用得克萨斯州哈里斯县的两个自然实验；在这两个实验中，首次面临重罪指控的被告获得转处的概率发生了突变。利用行政数据和断点回归方法，我们在两个实验中均发现稳健证据表明，转处使再犯率减半，并在十年期间使季度就业率提高近50%。这种人生轨迹的改变甚至在二十年后仍然存在，且集中于年轻黑人男性。对作用机制的考察强烈提示，与重罪定罪相关的污名在产生这些结果的过程中发挥了关键作用。其他可能的机制，包括监禁的变化、政策或实践中的其他普遍性调整，以及刑事案件处理上的差异，均已通过实证分析予以排除。
Abstract
Abstract This article provides the first causal estimates on the popular, cost-saving practice of diversion in the criminal justice system, an intervention that provides offenders with a second chance to avoid a criminal record. We exploit two natural experiments in Harris County, Texas where first-time felony defendants faced abrupt changes in the probability of diversion. Using administrative data and regression discontinuity methods, we find robust evidence across both experiments that diversion cuts reoffending rates in half and grows quarterly employment rates by nearly 50% over 10 years. The change in trajectory persists even 20 years out and is concentrated among young black men. An investigation of mechanisms strongly suggests that stigma associated with a felony conviction plays a key role in generating these results. Other possible mechanisms including changes in incarceration, other universal adjustments in policy or practice, and differences in criminal processing are ruled out empirically.