Long-term impacts of youth mentoring and therapy: Experimental evidence from Chicago
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Nour Abdul-Razzak、Brandon Domash、Kelly Hallberg、Cristobal Pinto Poehls
中文摘要
我们在芝加哥开展了一项大规模随机对照试验，评估一项为期六个月、将密集导师辅导与团体认知行为疗法（CBT）相结合的青少年干预项目，并对研究参与者进行了最长五年的跟踪。该项目旨在吸纳卷入刑事司法系统风险较高的青少年，并成功实现了这一目标，参与率达62%。参与者平均与导师相处177小时，接受9小时团体CBT。24个月后，被提供该项目的青少年被捕概率下降了19%。值得注意的是，这一影响持续至成年期：在随机分组后的五年内，效应保持稳定。总体被捕率的下降主要由暴力犯罪被捕的减少所驱动：24个月后暴力犯罪被捕概率下降了23%。该项目对在校就读的持续性（毕业或仍在读）没有影响，但在学校行为和学校流动性方面显示出提示性的改善。我们的结论是，将导师辅导与CBT相结合的项目可作为吸引较难触及青少年群体的一种模式，并能在更长时期内有效减少与刑事司法系统的接触。
Abstract
We conduct a large-scale, randomized controlled trial of a six-month intervention combining intensive mentoring and group cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for youth in Chicago, following study participants for up to five years. The program was designed to engage young people at higher risk of involvement with the criminal justice system, and successfully did so with a take-up rate of 62%. Participants averaged 177 hours with mentors and nine hours of group CBT. After 24 months, youth offered the program experienced a 19% reduction in the probability of being arrested. Notably, this impact persists into adulthood, as effects remain stable through five years post-randomization. A reduction in arrests for violent offenses is driving this overall arrest reduction, with a 23% reduction in the probability of a violent-crime arrest after 24 months. The program does not impact school enrollment persistence (graduation or being enrolled), but shows suggestive improvements in school behavior and school mobility. We conclude that programs that combine mentoring and CBT can serve as a model for engaging a harder-to-reach population of youth, and can be effective in reducing criminal justice contact in the longer run.