Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · C. Berti Ceroni、L. Piemontese、G. Prarolo、A. Schiavone
中文摘要
我们利用一项自然实验,其中难民接待设施在城市环境中的选址具有条件随机性。利用有关投票行为的调查数据,我们估计了与移民居住邻近程度对政治行为的因果效应。通过同时考察难民与长期移民的存在,我们调和了文献中相互矛盾的发现,并提供了一个统一框架,强调过往经历在决定对难民冲击的极化反应中的关键作用。我们表明,极化由此前与移民接触有限的选民所驱动,并在移民服务机构或家庭接待设施附近被放大。相比之下,基线接触程度高的选民则不受影响。
Abstract
We exploit a natural experiment involving the conditionally random placement of refugee hosting facilities in an urban setting. Using survey data on voting, we estimate the causal effect of proximity to immigrants on political behaviour. By examining both refugee and long-term immigrant presence, we reconcile conflicting findings in the literature and offer a unifying framework highlighting the key role of past experiences in determining polarised responses to refugee shocks. We show that polarisation is driven by voters with limited prior contact and is amplified near migrant services or family-hosting facilities. By contrast, those with high baseline exposure remain unaffected.