中文摘要
鉴于全球减少碳排放的努力,劳动力从碳密集型活动中转移出来的趋势可能会加剧。为揭示由此给工人带来的调整成本,我们利用1992至2020年的德国行政管理数据,估计高碳强度(HCI)行业工人遭受非自愿性岗位流失的成本。德国尤其适合开展这项研究,因为自1990年以来它一直是碳减排的领先国家之一,其HCI行业就业大幅下降。通过比较大规模裁员事件前后被裁撤与未被裁撤工人的劳动力市场结果,我们发现,从HCI行业被裁撤的工人比从其他行业被裁撤的工人面临更大且更持久的收入损失。这主要归因于再就业后工资较低。我们表明,岗位流失成本差距的很大一部分可由各行业在职业、企业以及本地劳动力市场相关特征上的持续差异所解释,而工人特征差异所起的作用较为有限。HCI行业的生产过程在地域上集中,涉及一组特定的职业和任务,且其企业工资溢价较高。这减少了找到技能要求与薪酬相近工作的外部选择,从而推高了被裁撤工人的调整成本。利用另一种识别非自愿离职的方法,我们表明研究结论同样适用于更为渐进的转型,这意味着在没有大规模裁员的绿色转型中,调整成本可能依然显著。
Abstract
Given global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the shift of labor away from carbon-intensive activities is likely to increase. To shed light on the implied adjustment costs for workers, we use German administrative data from 1992 to 2020 to estimate the cost of involuntary job displacement for workers in high-carbon-intensity (HCI) sectors. Germany is particularly well-suited for this endeavor, as it has been one of the leading countries in carbon emission reductions since 1990, with considerably declining employment in HCI sectors. Comparing labor market outcomes of displaced and non-displaced workers before and after a mass layoff event, we find that workers displaced from HCI sectors face larger and more lasting earnings losses than those displaced from other sectors. This is mainly due to lower wages after re-employment. We show that a large part of the gap in displacement costs is explained by persistent differences in occupation-, firm- and local labor market-related characteristics across sectors, while differences in worker characteristics play a more limited role. Production processes in HCI sectors are regionally concentrated and involve a specific set of occupations and tasks, while firm wage premia are higher. This reduces outside options for finding jobs with similar skill requirements and pay, increasing adjustment costs for displaced workers. Using an alternative method to identify involuntary job separations, we show that our results also apply to more gradual transitions, signaling that adjustment costs could remain significant in a green transition without mass-layoffs.