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冲突时期的外国干预与社区凝聚力

Foreign interventions and community cohesion in times of conflict
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Sarah Langlotz

中文摘要

外国干预能否成功,关键取决于当地社区内部的凝聚力,因为这些社区是反叛乱与重建行动中的重要合作伙伴。利用阿富汗军事基地位置与反叛乱援助的独特数据,我发现国际安全援助部队(ISAF)的存在对社会凝聚力产生负面影响,该凝聚力以社区内部的相互支持、对社区机构的参与以及信任来衡量。我采用地理断点回归设计,估计ISAF地理管辖范围扩大的效应,并辅以涵盖其行动强化过程的面板分析。这些发现似乎并非源于正式供给对非正式制度的挤出;相反,它们与更高的不安全程度以及对地方机构信心的下降同时出现,为观察到的社区凝聚力削弱提供了一种合理解释。这些发现对外交政策具有重要启示,尤其是在社区弥补正式制度供给缺口的情境中。

Abstract

The success of foreign interventions critically depends on cohesion within local communities, which serve as relevant partners in counterinsurgency and reconstruction efforts. Using unique data on military base locations and counterinsurgency aid in Afghanistan, I show that the presence of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) negatively affects social cohesion, measured by support within communities, engagement with community institutions, and trust. I leverage a geographic regression discontinuity design to estimate effects of ISAF’s geographic mandate enlargement, complemented by a panel analysis that covers its operational intensification. These findings do not appear to reflect crowding-out of informal institutions by formal provision; rather, they coincide with higher insecurity and reduced confidence in local institutions, offering a plausible explanation for the observed erosion of community cohesion. These findings carry important implications for foreign policy, particularly in settings where communities compensate for gaps in formal institutional provision.
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