NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Antoine B. Levy、Mathilde Muñoz
中文摘要
本文研究陷入困境的地区能否以及如何从工业衰退中复苏。我们利用法国“铁锈地带”毗邻卢森堡地区的居民在获得日益繁荣的卢森堡劳动力市场就业机会方面的差异。我们记录了处理组当地劳动力市场分三个阶段扩张的过程：初期由原有居民转向跨境就业、转换工作地点所驱动，中期由当地劳动力利用率上升所驱动，长期则由国内净迁入带来的人口持续增长所驱动。随之而来的是更广泛的当地复兴过程，表现为收入提高、对转移支付的依赖减少，以及对社会失序的抵御能力，不过，住房成本上升和不均衡的拥挤压力部分抵消了这一复兴带来的收益。这使极右翼和反欧盟的得票份额净下降，抑制了法国其他昔日工业地区所出现的民粹主义抬头。我们的研究结果表明，昔日工业地区并非天生僵化，也并非注定陷入反全球化反弹，而是能够且确实会作出调整——前提是当地劳动力需求出现足够大规模的逆转。
Abstract
This paper studies whether and how distressed regions can recover from industrial decline. We exploit differences in access to an increasingly thriving Luxembourg labor market for neighboring residents of the French “Rust Belt.” We document a three-phase expansion of treated local labor markets, driven by an initial workplace substitution of incumbent residents towards cross-border job opportunities, a medium-term rise in local labor force utilization, and a long-run sustained increase in population via net domestic in-migration. A broader process of local revitalization follows, with higher incomes, reduced reliance on transfers, and resilience to social dislocation, although it is partially offset by rising housing costs and unequal congestion. This leads to a net decrease in far-right and anti- EU vote shares, muting the rise of populism visible elsewhere in former industrial regions of France. Our findings suggest that former industrial regions are not inherently rigid nor doomed to fall to anti-globalization backlash, but can and do adjust – given sufficiently large-scale reversals in local labor demand.