Property Rights Uncertainty, Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from China's Housing Market
中文摘要
我们考察产权不确定性对房价和投机行为的因果效应。我们利用中国深圳的一个独特情境：相邻且其他方面相似的住宅单元，其产权保护强度存在差异。部分住宅单元拥有完整产权（FPR），附带70年期租赁权，而另一些住宅单元仅享有有限产权（LPR）保护。利用详细的挂牌数据，我们发现买卖市场将这些产权保护纳入定价，而租赁市场则没有。我们的估计意味着，人们主观认为FPR权利在70年期限届满时受到质疑的概率介于7%至21%之间，而LPR在未来任意一年得不到法律保护的概率超过50%。我们进一步表明，LPR住宅单元更容易受到投机影响，表现为更高的换手率和更大的价格波动性。最后，我们表明，相对于匹配的FPR住宅单元，新的城市规划规范的公开发布提高了LPR房产的挂牌价格，并降低了其换手率和价格波动性。
Abstract
We examine the causal effect of uncertainty in property rights on housing prices and speculative behavior. We take advantage of a distinctive setting in Shenzhen, China, where neighboring residential units that are otherwise similar differ in the strength of their property rights protections. Some units have full property rights (FPR) with a 70-year leasehold, whereas others have only limited property rights (LPR) protections. Using detailed listing data, we find that the sales market prices these protections, while the rental market does not. Our estimates imply that the perceived probability that FPR rights could be questioned at the end of the 70-year term is between 7% and 21%, and that the probability the LPR receives no legal protection in any future year exceeds 50%. We further show that LPR units are more susceptible to speculation, as reflected in higher turnover and greater price volatility. Lastly, we show that the public release of new urban planning codes raises listing prices and lowers turnover and price volatility for LPR properties relative to matched FPR units.