NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Alex Blumenfeld、Jonathon Hazell、Chen Lian、Andreas Schaab
中文摘要
我们衡量人工智能（AI）通过影响软件工程生产率而对经济产生的作用。我们利用来自金融市场的信息，构建了一个可实时获得的前瞻性指标。我们估计每家企业股票收益率对某一AI股票市场指数的敏感度，以及该敏感度如何取决于企业薪酬中软件工程所占的份额。我们用一个模型将这种横截面关系映射为软件工程生产率的提升。从2022年11月到2025年12月，AI使市场对软件工程生产率的预期现值提高了相当于永久性生产率提升32.6%的水平。对GDP水平的相应影响在基准情形下为3.6%，而当软件工程生产率的提高同时提升研发生产率时为6.5%。到2026年年中，在编码智能体快速发展的背景下，AI对生产率和GDP的影响相对于2025年底已增加一倍以上。
Abstract
We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure that is available in real time. We estimate the sensitivity of each firm’s stock return to an AI stock market index, and how this sensitivity depends on the share of firm payroll in software engineering. We use a model to map this cross-sectional relationship into software engineering productivity gains. From November 2022 to December 2025, AI increased the market’s expected present value of software engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% productivity increase. The corresponding effect on the level of GDP is 3.6% in the baseline and 6.5% when higher software engineering productivity also raises R&D productivity. By mid-2026, amid rapid progress in coding agents, the effect of AI on productivity and GDP had more than doubled relative to the end of 2025.