NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Maarten Meeuwis、Dimitris Papanikolaou、Lawrence D.W. Schmidt
Abstract
We study how aggregate financial conditions shape firm insurance and, through it, labor income risk. In a directed search model with dynamic wage contracts and two-sided limited commitment, firm insurance against idiosyncratic shocks erodes when risk premia rise. Using U.S. administrative data, we document new evidence supporting the model: pass-through of firm shocks to earnings rises in bad times, especially for lower-paid workers near the separation margin. The model reproduces many untargeted time-series and cross-sectional features of earnings risk and implies substantial welfare costs of idiosyncratic risk, high private discount rates on human capital, and large gains from recession-contingent transfers.