刺激支票的宏观经济效应：来自二战后向退伍军人发放款项的证据

中文摘要

刺激支票——向家庭发放的一次性、由赤字融资的定额支付——能否提振经济？我们研究了一个自然实验：第二次世界大战后向美国退伍军人发放的款项。这些款项类似于刺激支票，但有理由认为其相对于经济状况具有外生性。这些款项使转移支付暂时增加，并使消费出现持续一段时间的驼峰形增加。转移支付乘数——消费对转移支付的累积响应——在六个月后达到1，在一年后超过2。标准的异质性主体新凯恩斯模型无法匹配这种驼峰形的消费响应。引入不完美预期的模型版本——其中家庭在冲击当期反应不足，但在较长时间跨度上反应过度——能够匹配我们的估计结果。

Abstract

Do stimulus checks—one-off, deficit-financed lump-sum payments to households—boost the economy? We study a natural experiment: payments to U.S. veterans after World War II that mimic stimulus checks but were plausibly exogenous to the economy. These payments led to a temporary increase in transfers and a persistent, hump-shaped increase in consumption. The transfer multiplier—the cumulative response of consumption to transfers—reaches 1 after six months and exceeds 2 after a year. The standard heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model cannot match the hump-shaped consumption response. A version with imperfect expectations—with households underreacting on impact but overreacting at longer horizons—can match our estimates.