NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Benjamin W. Cowan、Mohamed Hafis Zida
中文摘要
本文估计生育对母亲工作安排的因果效应，重点关注远程工作。我们使用2003—2024年美国社区调查（ACS）中经过统一口径处理的个体层面数据，利用前两个孩子的性别构成以及第二胎次的双胞胎出生所产生的生育外生变异。我们发现，在整个样本期内，生育显著降低了劳动力参与，这与既有证据一致，但其对远程工作的影响较为复杂。在COVID-19大流行之前，多生一个孩子会提高远程工作的可能性。然而，2020年后，随着远程工作变得普遍，这些效应转为负向。我们表明，这些模式既不是由进入可远程工作职业的选择变化所驱动，也不是由依从者（compliers）的可观测特征随时间的变化所驱动。更可能的解释是，对许多女性而言，远程工作的可行性或吸引力有限，同时远程工作的性质也随时间发生了变化。综合来看，这些发现表明，当前形式的远程工作在实质性减少较高胎次生育所带来的生育惩罚方面潜力有限。
Abstract
This paper estimates the causal effect of fertility on mothers’ work arrangements, with a particular focus on remote work. Using harmonized individual-level data from the American Community Survey (ACS) for the period 2003--2024, we exploit exogenous variation in fertility generated by the sex composition of the first two children and twin births at the second parity. We find that fertility significantly reduces labor force participation across our sample period, consistent with existing evidence, but its effects on remote work are nuanced. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional child increases the likelihood of working remotely. However, these effects turn negative after 2020 when remote work became common. We show that these patterns are not driven by changing selection into teleworkable occupations nor by changes in the observable characteristics of compliers over time. The limited feasibility or attractiveness of remote work for many women, combined with changes in the nature of remote work over time, are more likely explanations. Taken together, these findings suggest that remote work, in its current form, has limited potential to meaningfully reduce child penalties for higher-order births.