BBVA 讲座 2025：负利率与有效下限：理论与证据
FBBVA Lecture 2025: Negative Rates and the Effective Lower Bound: Theory and Evidence
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · [{"name": "Michael McLeay", "affiliation": ["Bank of England"]}, {"name": "Silvana Tenreyro", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}, {"name": "Lukas von dem Berge", "affiliation": ["University of Oxford", "Bank of England"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 随着货币政策下限在部分地区再次成为受关注的问题, 我们就负政策利率的影响提出了新的见解。我们构建了一个新的理论模型, 以匹配有关其影响的经验证据。该模型刻画了一个异质性的寡头垄断银行部门, 其中贷款定价部分取决于存款资金的可得性, 部分取决于批发融资。非存款融资的使用确保负利率的银行信贷渠道保持活跃。我们考察了该政策对不同类型银行的影响: 高存款银行可能经历利差与盈利能力的下降, 从而可能导致贷款减少; 但这一影响被低存款银行更多的贷款所抵消而有余。我们将这一银行部门嵌入一个开放经济宏观经济模型, 该模型包含汇率和资本市场传导渠道, 而这些渠道在利率为负时仍如常发挥作用。这些非银行渠道, 加上一般均衡效应和活跃的银行信贷渠道, 意味着负利率的传导仅略弱于常规货币政策的传导。
Abstract
Abstract With the monetary policy lower bound a re-emerging concern in some locations, we present new insights on the impact of negative policy rates. We develop a new theoretical model to match the empirical evidence on their effects. The model features a heterogeneous, oligopolistic banking sector where loan pricing is determined in part by the availability of deposit funding and in part by wholesale funding. The use of non-deposit funding ensures that the bank lending channel of negative rates remains active. We explore the impact of the policy on different types of banks: High-deposit banks may experience a fall in interest margins and profitability, which can result in reduced lending. But this is more than compensated for by greater lending from low-deposit banks. We embed this banking sector in an open-economy macroeconomic model, featuring exchange-rate and capital market transmission channels, which continue to work as normal when rates are negative. These non-bank channels, combined with general equilibrium effects and an active bank lending channel, mean that the transmission of negative rates is only somewhat weaker than the transmission of conventional policy.