The Returns to International Migration in a Free Mobility Setting: Evidence from Austria and Germany
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Andrea Weber、David Card、Wolfgang Dauth、Wolfgang Frimmel、Julia Schmieder、Rudolf Winter-Ebmer
中文摘要
国际迁移的收益有多大？这些收益在不同迁移者之间有何差异？我们利用奥地利和德国的关联行政数据研究这些问题，重点考察在迁移前第2至第4年期间稳定就业的迁移者，并以他们此前的同事为对照组，采用双重差分设计。我们结合来源国和目的国在迁移后5年内的数据，从而能够评估留在目的国者和返回原籍国者的收益。平均而言，相对于匹配的原同事，从奥地利迁往德国者的日工资立即上升约13%，且这一增幅持续存在；从德国迁往奥地利者的日工资增幅则约为4%。奥地利迁移者较高的回报主要源于德国较高的平均工资，而非迁移者的选择性差异。与动态学习模型一致，留在目的国的迁移者获得的迁移回报最高，迁移后1至4年返回原籍国者的回报较低，而迁移后不到一年便返回者的回报为零，甚至略为负值。沿工作场所之间既有跨境网络迁移的人也获得了更高的回报。为帮助解释这些发现，我们对迁往更大城市（维也纳或德国五个最大城市之一）的国内迁移者进行了平行分析。迁往“大城市”的奥地利人和德国人的工资增幅分别约为5%和10%。同样，留在目的城市者的收益最高，继续迁往其他地方者的收益较小。
Abstract
How big are the gains to international migration? How do they vary across migrants? We study these questions using linked administrative data for Austria and Germany, focusing on migrants who were steadily employed 2-4 years before their move and using their previous co-workers as a comparison group for a difference-in-differences design. We combine data from the origin and destination countries for 5 years after the move, allowing us to assess the gains for those who remain in the destination and those who return. On average, migrants from Austria to Germany experience an immediate and persistent rise of around 13% in their daily wage relative to their matched co-workers, while migrants from Germany to Austria gain about 4%. The higher returns for Austrians are mainly driven by higher average wages in Germany, rather than by differential selection of migrants. Consistent with a dynamic learning model, the returns to migration are largest for migrants who remain in the destination country, smaller for those who return after 1-4 years, and zero or even slightly negative for those who return in less than a year. They are also larger for migrants who follow established cross-border networks between workplaces. To help interpret our findings we conduct a parallel analysis of domestic migrants who move to a larger city (Vienna or one of the 5 largest cities in Germany). “Big city” movers experience gains in wages of about 5% for Austrians and 10% for Germans. Again the gains are largest for those who remain in the destination city, with smaller effects for those who move on.