中文摘要
本文构建了一个国际贸易与利润转移的多部门、多国模型，将不完全竞争嵌入Eaton和Kortum（2002）的李嘉图贸易模型，并允许进口品与出口品的加成率分布因部门和国家而异。我们首先从理论上说明，贸易自由化的收益如何取决于进口品相对于出口品的加成率分布。为将模型与数据相结合，我们针对36,000多个不同的部门—国家组合，估计了贸易弹性以及一套丰富的国家和行业特定进口需求弹性。我们发现，各国出口加成率相对于进口加成率的异质性是决定贸易收益、尤其是关税所致福利损失的一阶因素。在灵活考虑加成率异质性后，高加成率产品净出口国的这类损失最高可达原来的三倍。我们将模型应用于2018—2019年中美贸易战，结果表明，在考虑加成率和利润转移后，美国因关税战遭受的福利损失增至两倍以上，而中国总体上略有受益。
Abstract
Abstract This paper develops a multisector, multicountry model of international trade and profit shifting that embeds imperfect competition into Eaton and Kortum (2002)’s Ricardian trade model and allows markup distributions for both imports and exports to vary across sectors and countries. We first show theoretically how the gains from trade liberalization depend on the markup distribution for imported relative to exported goods. To bring the model to the data, we estimate both trade elasticities and a rich set of country- and industry-specific import demand elasticities for over 36,000 distinct sector-country pairs. We find that cross-country heterogeneities in export markups relative to import markups are a first-order determinant of the gains from trade and especially the welfare losses from tariffs. By flexibly taking heterogeneity in markups into account, these losses are up to three times larger for net exporters of high-markup products. We apply our model to the 2018–19 U.S.–China trade war and show that U.S. welfare losses from the tariff war are more than twice as high once markups and profit shifting are taken into account, whereas China benefited slightly overall.