中文摘要
本文构建了一个多部门、多国的国际贸易与利润转移模型,将不完全竞争嵌入Eaton和Kortum (2002) 的李嘉图贸易模型,并允许进口与出口的加成率分布在部门和国家两个维度上存在差异。我们首先从理论上说明,贸易自由化的收益如何取决于进口品相对于出口品的加成率分布。为将模型与数据对接,我们估计了贸易弹性,以及针对36,000余个不同部门—国家组合的丰富的国别与行业层面进口需求弹性。我们发现,出口加成率相对于进口加成率的跨国异质性,是贸易收益、尤其是关税造成的福利损失的一阶决定因素。通过灵活地纳入加成率的异质性,对于高加成率产品的净出口国而言,这些损失最多可达原来的三倍。我们将模型应用于2018–2019年美中贸易战,结果表明,一旦考虑加成率与利润转移,美国因关税战遭受的福利损失将升至原来的两倍以上,而中国总体上略有获益。
Abstract
Abstract This paper develops a multisector, multicountry model of international trade and profit shifting that embeds imperfect competition into Eaton and Kortum (2002)’s Ricardian trade model and allows markup distributions for both imports and exports to vary across sectors and countries. We first show theoretically how the gains from trade liberalization depend on the markup distribution for imported relative to exported goods. To bring the model to the data, we estimate both trade elasticities and a rich set of country- and industry-specific import demand elasticities for over 36,000 distinct sector-country pairs. We find that cross-country heterogeneities in export markups relative to import markups are a first-order determinant of the gains from trade and especially the welfare losses from tariffs. By flexibly taking heterogeneity in markups into account, these losses are up to three times larger for net exporters of high-markup products. We apply our model to the 2018–19 U.S.–China trade war and show that U.S. welfare losses from the tariff war are more than twice as high once markups and profit shifting are taken into account, whereas China benefited slightly overall.