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点燃知识:早期技术采用、创新能力与长期增长

Sparking Knowledge: Early Technology Adoption, Innovation Ability and Long-Run Growth
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2026 · Björn Brey

中文摘要

本文考察技术采用中先发优势带来的益处。研究表明,19世纪末瑞士各地对电力的早期采用,不仅在短期内有利于当地经济发展,在长期内也同样如此。通过利用水能潜力的外生变异,并结合电力传输技术的快速进步,这些发现可以作因果解释。经济发展差异得以持续存在的主要机制是人力资本积累的增加和创新能力的提升。相比之下,我未能发现任何证据支持以下几种替代机制:(1)电力使用上的持续差异;(2)家庭电气化;(3)资源意外收益带来的当地收益;(4)规模报酬与物质资本积累;(5)人口集聚。

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the benefits of first-mover advantages in technology adoption. It documents that the early adoption of electricity across late 19th-century Switzerland was conducive to local economic development not just in the short run but also in the long run. By exploiting exogenous variation in waterpower potential, alongside rapid advancements in power transmission technology, these findings can be interpreted as causal. The main mechanism through which differences in economic development persist is increased human capital accumulation and innovativeness. In contrast, I was unable to uncover any evidence supporting a number of alternative mechanisms: (1) persistent differences in the use of electricity, (2) household electrification, (3) local gains from resource windfalls, (4) returns to scale and physical capital accumulation, and (5) population agglomeration.
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