Review of Economic Studies · 2020 · Francisco Buera、Joseph P. Kaboski、Yongseok Shin
中文摘要
小额信贷的总量与分配效应如何？为回答这一问题，我们构建了一个包含创业和金融摩擦的定量宏观经济框架，将小额信贷建模为有担保的小额贷款。我们利用近期对小规模小额信贷项目的实证评估来约束并验证模型。我们发现，长期一般均衡效应与短期效应存在很大差异。在短期局部均衡中，小额信贷使产出和资本增加，但全要素生产率（TFP）下降。在长期，考虑到一般均衡效应——评估覆盖整个经济的小额信贷干预时理应如此——扩大小额信贷规模对人均收入的影响很小，因为全要素生产率的提高被资本积累的减少所抵消。然而，绝大多数人口都直接和间接地从小额信贷中受益。贫困人群和边际企业家的福利增益更大，尽管一般均衡中较高的利率使这些增益向富人倾斜。
Abstract
Abstract What is the aggregate and distributional impact of microfinance? To answer this question, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic framework of entrepreneurship and financial frictions in which microfinance is modelled as guaranteed small-size loans. We discipline and validate our model using recent empirical evaluations of small-scale microfinance programs. We find that the long-run general equilibrium impact is substantially different from the short-run effect. In the short-run partial equilibrium, output and capital increase with microfinance but total factor productivity (TFP) falls. In the long run, when general equilibrium effects are considered, as should be for economy-wide microfinance interventions, scaling up microfinance has only a small impact on per-capita income, because an increase in TFP is offset by lower capital accumulation. However, the vast majority of the population benefits from microfinance directly and indirectly. The welfare gains are larger for the poor and the marginal entrepreneurs, although higher interest rates in general equilibrium tilt the gains toward the rich.