中文摘要
本文为近期关于中国宏观经济发展的文献提供分析性指南，强调渐进式改革路径的关键作用。我们的分析表明，1978年至1997年，渐进式路径主要通过促进剩余劳动力从农业向非农业部门重新配置的政策，推动了中国的总体全要素生产率与经济增长。自1998年以来，政府重心发生转变，各项改革鼓励大型企业——无论国有还是民营——进入资本密集型部门，使资本深化成为经济增长的主要驱动力。这一战略虽维持了中国的GDP增长，但也加剧了与全球伙伴的贸易紧张，为向消费主导型经济转型设置了障碍，并威胁到中国的长期金融稳定，给中国经济投下了长长的阴影。（JEL E23, F14, L16, O11, O47, P21, P24）
Abstract
This paper provides analytic guides to recent literature on China’s macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist reform approach. Our analysis suggests that from 1978 to 1997, the gradualist approach contributed to China’s aggregate total factor productivity and economic growth primarily through policies that facilitated the reallocation of surplus labor from agriculture to nonagricultural sectors. Since 1998, the government’s focus shifted, with various reforms encouraging large enterprises, whether state owned or privately owned, to enter capital-intensive sectors, making capital deepening the main driver of economic growth. While this strategy sustained China’s GDP growth, it also increased trade tensions with global partners, created barriers to transitioning to a consumption-led economy, and threatened China’s long-term financial stability, casting long shadows over the Chinese economy. (JEL E23, F14, L16, O11, O47, P21, P24)