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对顶层财富征税:迁移反应及其总体经济影响

Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and Their Aggregate Economic Implications
American Economic Review · 2026 · Katrine Jakobsen、Henrik Kleven、Jonas Kolsrud、Camille Landais、Mathilde Muñoz

中文摘要

我们利用斯堪的纳维亚国家的行政数据,提供了国际迁移对财富税作出反应的证据,并评估了这些迁移反应的总体经济影响。我们发现,富裕人群存在显著的迁移反应:最高财富税率提高1个百分点,会使富裕纳税人存量减少约2%。富裕人群中很大一部分是企业主,其企业因企业主迁出而受到负面影响。尽管如此,总体效应仍然有限:最高财富税率提高1个百分点所引发的迁移反应,使就业减少0.02%、投资减少0.07%、增加值减少0.10%。

Abstract

Using administrative data from Scandinavian countries, we provide evidence on international migration responses to wealth taxes and evaluate their aggregate economic implications. We find significant migration responses among the wealthy: A 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by about 2 percent. A large fraction of the wealthy are business owners, and their businesses are negatively affected by owner out-migration. The aggregate effects are nevertheless modest: The migration responses to a 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate reduce employment by 0.02 percent, investments by 0.07 percent, and value added by 0.10 percent. (JEL D31, E22, E24, F22, H24, L26, K34)

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