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解放技术:非洲的移动电话与政治动员

Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa
Econometrica · 2020 · Marco Manacorda、Andrea Tesei

中文摘要

数字信息与通信技术能否促进大规模政治动员?我们使用一个涵盖1998年至2012年整个非洲大陆移动电话信号覆盖情况的新型地理参照数据集,结合来自多个来源、有关抗议活动发生情况及个人参与抗议情况的地理参照数据,对这一论点进行实证检验。我们发现,移动电话虽有助于大规模动员,但这一作用仅在经济下行时期出现,此时引发不满的缘由出现,参与成本也随之下降。这些结果与一个考虑了不完全信息和抗议活动发生中的策略互补性的网络模型所提供的见解一致。移动电话使个人既对经济状况的变化更加敏感,也对邻居参与抗议更加敏感;我们将前一种机制归因于信息的增强,将后一种机制归因于协调的增强。

Abstract

Can digital information and communication technology foster mass political mobilization? We use a novel georeferenced data set for the entire African continent between 1998 and 2012 on the coverage of mobile phone signal together with georeferenced data from multiple sources on the occurrence of protests and on individual participation in protests to bring this argument to empirical scrutiny. We find that while mobile phones are instrumental to mass mobilization, this only happens during economic downturns, when reasons for grievance emerge and the cost of participation falls. The results are in line with insights from a network model with imperfect information and strategic complementarities in protest occurrence. Mobile phones make individuals more responsive to both changes in economic conditions—a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced information —and to their neighbors' participation—a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced coordination .
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