Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2017 · Leonid Kogan、Dimitris Papanikolaou、Amit Seru、Noah Stoffman
中文摘要
我们提出了一种衡量每项创新经济重要性的新指标。我们的指标使用了新收集的1926至2010年间授予美国企业的专利数据，结合股票市场对专利新闻的反应。我们对私人经济价值的专利层面估计与这些专利的科学价值呈正相关，后者由专利在未来收到的引用次数来衡量。我们的新指标与显著的增长、再配置和创造性破坏相关联，这与熊彼特增长模型的预测一致。将我们的指标加总表明，技术创新解释了总经济增长和全要素生产率（TFP）显著的中期波动。相对于基于引用加权的专利数量，我们的指标包含额外信息；我们的指标与企业增长之间的关系显著更强。重要的是，与我们的指标相关联的创造性破坏程度高于先前的估计，证实了它是专利私人估值的有效代理变量。
Abstract
Abstract We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to U.S. firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent-level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation, and creative destruction, consistent with the predictions of Schumpeterian growth models. Aggregating our measure suggests that technological innovation accounts for significant medium-run fluctuations in aggregate economic growth and TFP. Our measure contains additional information relative to citation-weighted patent counts; the relation between our measure and firm growth is considerably stronger. Importantly, the degree of creative destruction that is associated with our measure is higher than previous estimates, confirming that it is a useful proxy for the private valuation of patents.