Review of Economic Studies · 2020 · Nezih Guner、Remzi Kaygusuz、Gustavo Jaime Ventura
中文摘要
向有子女家庭提供转移支付会产生哪些宏观经济效应？不同政策在福利方面的表现如何？我们在一个均衡生命周期模型中回答这些问题。该模型纳入了家庭劳动供给决策、女性因不参与劳动力市场而产生的技能损失，以及家庭在生育、儿童照护支出和获得非正式照护方面的异质性。我们根据美国经济校准模型，首先对比以市场工作为条件的转移支付（儿童照护补贴和儿童照护税收抵免）与不以市场工作为条件的转移支付（儿童税收抵免），为政策评估提供路线图；这两类转移支付均可采用家计调查型或普惠型。随后，我们评估扩大美国现行政策安排的效果，发现扩大以市场工作为条件的转移支付对女性劳动供给具有较大的正向效应，且这一效应在技能分布底端最大。扩大儿童照护税收抵免使已婚女性的劳动参与率在长期内提高10.6%，而同等规模地扩大儿童税收抵免则产生相反的效果，使该参与率下降2.4%。扩大现有项目为新成立家庭带来可观的福利收益，其中技能较低的家庭收益最大。扩大儿童照护税收抵免为新成立家庭带来的福利收益最大，并获得多数支持。
Abstract
Abstract What are the macroeconomic effects of transfers to households with children? How do alternative policies fare in welfare terms? We answer these questions in an equilibrium life-cycle model with household labour supply decisions, skill losses of females associated to non-participation, and heterogeneity in terms of fertility, childcare expenditures, and access to informal care. Calibrating our model to the U.S. economy, we first provide a roadmap for policy evaluation by contrasting transfers that are conditional on market work (childcare subsidies and childcare credits) with those that are not (child credits), when both types can be means tested or universal. We then evaluate expansions of current arrangements for the U.S. and find that expansions of conditional transfers have substantial positive effects on female labour supply, that are largest at the bottom of the skill distribution. Expanding childcare credits leads to long-run increases in the participation of married females of 10.6%, while an equivalent expansion of child credits leads to the opposite ($-$2.4%). Expanding existing programs generates substantial welfare gains for newborn households, which are largest for less-skilled households. Expanding childcare credits leads to the largest welfare gains for newborns and achieves majority support.