中文摘要
尽管在现代关于工业革命的叙述中大多缺席，怀表却是第一种大规模生产的耐用消费品，也是亚当·斯密论述技术进步时最为重要的例证。事实上，斯密提出了一个引人注目的论断：在此前的一个世纪里，怀表价格可能下降了多达95%，本文试图对这一论断加以评估。我们考察了1685年至1810年间伦敦老贝利刑事审判中3,200多只被盗怀表所记录价值的变化。在考虑质量改进之前，我们发现几乎所有类别怀表的实际价格都以每年1.3%的速度稳步下降，相当于一个世纪内下降75%，这表明，一种高度复杂器物的生产中持续不断的创新，早在18世纪初就已在英国经济的一个重要部门中出现。
Abstract
Abstract Although largely absent from modern accounts of the Industrial Revolution, watches were the first mass-produced consumer durable and were Adam Smith’s preeminent example of technological progress. In fact, Smith makes the notable claim that watch prices may have fallen by up to 95% over the preceding century, a claim that this article attempts to evaluate. We look at changes in the reported value of over 3,200 stolen watches from criminal trials in the Old Bailey in London from 1685 to 1810. Before allowing for quality improvements, we find that the real price of watches in nearly all categories falls steadily by 1.3% a year, equivalent to a fall of 75% over a century, showing that sustained innovation in the production of a highly complex artifact had already appeared in one important sector of the British economy by the early eighteenth century.