The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: Experimental Evidence from Kenya*
中文摘要
我们采用随机对照试验，研究肯尼亚农村贫困家庭对非政府组织 GiveDirectly 提供的无条件现金转移支付的反应。这些转移支付与其他项目的不同之处在于，它们明确不附带任何条件、金额较大且发放时间集中。我们在村庄和家庭两个层面进行了随机化；此外，在处理组内，我们还对受助者性别（妻子或丈夫）、转移支付的发放时间安排（一次性发放或按月分期发放）及金额（按购买力平价计404美元或1,525美元）进行了随机化。我们发现，转移支付引起了强烈的消费反应：在转移支付开始九个月后，家庭月消费从按购买力平价计158美元增至193美元。受助者的心理福祉大幅提升。我们未发现转移支付对压力激素皮质醇水平有总体影响，尽管某些子群体之间存在差异。按月转移支付比一次性转移支付更有可能改善粮食安全，而一次性转移支付则更有可能用于耐用品支出，这表明家庭面临储蓄和信贷约束。综合来看，这些结果表明，无条件现金转移支付对经济结果和心理福祉具有显著影响。
Abstract
We use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural Kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the NGO GiveDirectly. The transfers differ from other programs in that they are explicitly unconditional, large, and concentrated in time. We randomized at both the village and household levels; furthermore, within the treatment group, we randomized recipient gender (wife versus husband), transfer timing (lump-sum transfer versus monthly installments), and transfer magnitude (US$404 PPP versus US$1,525 PPP). We find a strong consumption response to transfers, with an increase in household monthly consumption from $158 PPP to $193 PPP nine months after the transfer began. Transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well-being. We find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol, although there are differences across some subgroups. Monthly transfers are more likely than lump-sum transfers to improve food security, whereas lump-sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables, suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints. Together, these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well-being.