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准货币资产的流动性溢价*

The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets*
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2016 · Stefan Nagel

中文摘要

本文考察了货币的机会成本与准货币资产时变流动性溢价之间的联系。利率上升意味着持有货币的机会成本上升,因而对于与货币相近替代的资产,其流动性服务收益的溢价也随之上升。与该理论一致,美国、英国和加拿大的短期利率与国库券及其他准货币资产的流动性溢价之间,在回溯至20世纪20年代的各个时期内均存在强烈的正相关关系。一旦将货币的机会成本纳入考量,除短暂的短期效应外,国债供给变量便失去了对流动性溢价的解释力。这些发现表明,货币与准货币资产之间存在很高的替代弹性。因此,以利率为操作目标的中央银行不仅能够弹性地吸纳并中和货币需求冲击,实际上也能够抵消准货币资产供给与需求的冲击。

Abstract

Abstract This article examines the link between the opportunity cost of money and time-varying liquidity premia of near-money assets. Higher interest rates imply higher opportunity costs of holding money and hence a higher premium for the liquidity service benefits of assets that are close substitutes for money. Consistent with this theory, short-term interest rates in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada have a strong positive relationship with the liquidity premium of Treasury bills and other near-money assets over periods going back to the 1920s. Once the opportunity cost of money is taken into account, Treasury security supply variables lose their explanatory power for the liquidity premium, except for transitory short-run effects. These findings indicate a high elasticity of substitution between money and near-money assets. As a consequence, a central bank that follows an interest rate operating target not only elastically accommodates and neutralizes shocks to money demand, but effectively also shocks to near-money asset supply and demand.
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