Tradability and the Labor‐Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence From the United States
中文摘要
本文研究职业（或行业）的可贸易性如何塑造当地劳动力市场对移民的调整。在理论上，我们推导出一个简单条件：在该条件下，国外出生的劳动力进入某一地区，会将本国出生的工人挤出（或挤入）移民密集型岗位，从而降低（或提高）这些职业的相对工资。我们还解释了为何这一过程在可贸易活动内部与不可贸易活动内部有所不同。利用1980—2012年美国通勤区的数据，我们发现，与理论一致，当地移民流入会挤出本国出生工人在移民密集度较高的不可贸易岗位中的就业，相对于移民密集度较低的不可贸易岗位而言；但在可贸易职业之间不存在这种效应。对职业劳动报酬的进一步分析结果与以下调整方式相一致：与不可贸易活动内部的调整相比，可贸易活动内部对移民的调整更多地通过产出变化而非价格变化来实现，从而证实了我们模型的理论机制。随后，我们利用该模型探讨美国移民的反事实变化对职业和地区层面实际工资的定量影响。
Abstract
In this paper, we study how occupation (or industry) tradability shapes local labor‐market adjustment to immigration. Theoretically, we derive a simple condition under which the arrival of foreign‐born labor into a region crowds native‐born workers out of (or into) immigrant‐intensive jobs, thus lowering (or raising) relative wages in these occupations, and we explain why this process differs within tradable versus within nontradable activities. Using data for U.S. commuting zones over the period 1980–2012, we find—consistent with our theory—that a local influx of immigrants crowds out employment of native‐born workers in more relative to less immigrant‐intensive nontradable jobs, but has no such effect across tradable occupations. Further analysis of occupation labor payments is consistent with adjustment to immigration within tradables occurring more through changes in output (versus changes in prices) when compared to adjustment within nontradables, thereby confirming our model's theoretical mechanism. We then use the model to explore the quantitative consequences of counterfactual changes in U.S. immigration on real wages at the occupation and region level.