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误诊与漏诊:医生决策与注意缺陷多动障碍

Mis(sed) Diagnosis: Physician Decision-Making and ADHD
Journal of Political Economy · 2026 · Kelli Marquardt

中文摘要

驱动精神卫生保健差异的机制尚不明确。本文构建了一个注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)诊断的结构模型,突出患者与医生因素如何导致差异。利用电子健康记录数据,我估计了模型参数,并对观察到的男性与女性 ADHD 诊断差异 2.3∶1 进行分解。模拟显示,该诊断差异中仅有 20%–25% 可由潜在症状患病率解释,其余大部分由诊断阈值的差异驱动。我发现医生认为漏诊对其男性患者代价更高,我认为这可能具有经济上的合理性。

Abstract

The mechanisms driving disparities in mental health care are not well understood. This paper develops a structural model of diagnosis for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), highlighting how patient and physician factors can result in disparities. Using electronic health record data, I estimate model parameters and decompose the observed male∶female ADHD diagnostic difference of 2.3∶1. Simulations show that only 20%–25% of this diagnostic difference can be explained by underlying symptom prevalence, with the majority driven by differences in diagnostic thresholds. I find that physicians view missed diagnosis to be costlier for their male patients, which I argue may have economic justifications.
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