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理解衰退的疤痕效应

Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions
American Economic Review · 2022 · Christopher Huckfeldt

中文摘要

本文记录了失业的收入成本主要集中在那些在较低技能职业中实现再就业的工人身上,并且对于在衰退期间失业的工人而言,此类职业降级的成本与发生率更高。我提出了一个模型,其中在衰退期间招聘内生地更具选择性,导致一些失业工人最优地在较低技能工作中寻找再就业。该模型解释了关于失业损失的现值成本规模与周期性,以及在衰退期间进入劳动力市场的成本的现有估计。

Abstract

This paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-skill occupations, and that the cost and incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. I propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, leading some unemployed workers to optimally search for reemployment in lower-skill jobs. The model accounts for existing estimates of the size and cyclicality of the present value cost of job loss, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession. (JEL E24, E32, J23, J24, J31, J63, J64)
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