Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · Davide Cantoni、Andrew Kao、David Y. Yang、Noam Yuchtman
中文摘要
长期以来,公民走上街头要求变革,表达那些在其他情况下本可能受到压制的政治观点。抗议在地方、国家和国际层面催生了变革,包括政治与社会转型的壮观时刻。我们记录了五个新的经验模式,刻画了1980年至2020年间218个国家的120万起抗议事件。第一,在“阿拉伯之春”期间,威权政体与脆弱民主政体的抗议出现趋势断点。第二,“阿拉伯之春”之后,抗议运动的重要性也随之上升。第三,抗议运动随时间在地理上扩散,先急剧攀升至峰值,随后回落。第四,一国逐年的经济表现与抗议之间并无强相关;个人价值观则能预测抗议参与。第五,美国、中国和俄罗斯是学术研究中代表性过高最为突出的国家。我们讨论了每一模式与既有文献的联系,并展望了未来研究的路径。
Abstract
Citizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak before falling off. Fourth, a country's year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the United States, China, and Russia are the most overrepresented countries in academic studies. We discuss each pattern's connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work.