Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States
中文摘要
我们衡量情境因素（如投票规则和媒体）与个体因素（如种族和教育）对选民行为的总体影响，并探讨其背后的机制。利用2008—2018年覆盖全美的选民层面面板数据，我们考察跨州和跨县迁移的选民，追踪其选民登记、投票率和党派归属的变化，在增值模型中估计地点固定效应和个体固定效应。地点解释了投票率州际差异的37%（个体特征解释63%），对党派归属差异的解释份额仅略低于这一比例。地点效应对年轻选民和白人选民更大。（JEL D12, D72, I20, J15, L82, R23）
Abstract
We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008–2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters. (JEL D12, D72, I20, J15, L82, R23)