Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago*
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2016 · Sara Heller、Anuj Shah、Jonathan Guryan、Jens Ludwig、Sendhil Mullainathan、Harold A. Pollack
中文摘要
本文报告了在芝加哥开展的三项大规模随机对照试验（RCT）的结果。这些试验检验了旨在通过改变经济弱势青少年的决策方式来减少犯罪与辍学的干预措施。我们在分别于2009—2010年和2013—2015年实施的两项随机对照试验中，研究了由非营利组织Youth Guidance开发的“成为男子汉”（Becoming a Man，BAM）项目。在这两项研究中，参与该项目使干预期间的总逮捕数减少了28—35%，暴力犯罪逮捕数减少了45—50%，并提高了青少年的在校参与度；在我们拥有追踪数据的第一项研究中，参与该项目还使毕业率提高了12—19%。第三项随机对照试验检验了在库克县青少年临时拘留中心（JTDC）实施的一个项目，其部分构成要素与前述项目重叠。该项目使该中心的再次收容率降低了21%。这些幅度较大的行为反应，加上不高的项目成本，意味着这些干预措施的收益成本比为5:1至30:1，甚至更高。我们用于考察作用机制的数据并不理想，但我们没有发现肯定性证据表明，这些效应源于情绪智力或社交技能、自我控制或“坚毅”的变化，或源于一般性的导师指导效应。我们发现的证据为以下假说提供了提示性支持：这些项目通过帮助青少年放慢思考节奏，并反思其自动化思维与行为是否适合所处情境，或者是否可以对该情境作出不同解读，来发挥作用。
Abstract
Abstract We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009–2010 and 2013–2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28–35%, reduced violent-crime arrests by 45–50%, improved school engagement, and in the first study where we have follow-up data, increased graduation rates by 12–19%. The third RCT tested a program with partially overlapping components carried out in the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC), which reduced readmission rates to the facility by 21%. These large behavioral responses combined with modest program costs imply benefit-cost ratios for these interventions from 5-to-1 up to 30-to-1 or more. Our data on mechanisms are not ideal, but we find no positive evidence that these effects are due to changes in emotional intelligence or social skills, self-control or “grit,” or a generic mentoring effect. We find suggestive support for the hypothesis that the programs work by helping youth slow down and reflect on whether their automatic thoughts and behaviors are well suited to the situation they are in, or whether the situation could be construed differently.