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劳动供给冲击、本国出生者的工资与本地就业调整

Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and the Adjustment of Local Employment*
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2016 · Christian Dustmann、Uta Schönberg、Jan Stuhler

中文摘要

本文利用一项导致捷克工人大量且出乎预料地流入德捷边境沿线地区的通勤政策,考察移民引致的外生劳动供给冲击对当地本地人工资和就业的影响。平均而言,这一供给冲击导致当地本地人的工资适度下降,就业大幅下降。这些平均效应掩盖了不同群体之间相当大的异质性:年轻本地人的工资受到的影响更大,而年长本地人的就业反应尤为明显。这一模式与标准移民模型不一致,但一个允许年长工人相较于年轻工人具有更大劳动供给弹性或更高工资刚性的模型可以对此作出解释。我们进一步表明,就业反应几乎完全由本地人进入就业的流入减少所驱动,而非由本地人流向其他地区或转入非就业状态的流出所驱动。这表明,“局外人”保护了“局内人”,使其免受竞争加剧的影响。

Abstract

Abstract By exploiting a commuting policy that led to a sharp and unexpected inflow of Czech workers to areas along the German-Czech border, we examine the impact of an exogenous immigration-induced labor supply shock on local wages and employment of natives. On average, the supply shock leads to a moderate decline in local native wages and a sharp decline in local native employment. These average effects mask considerable heterogeneity across groups: while younger natives experience larger wage effects, employment responses are particularly pronounced for older natives. This pattern is inconsistent with standard models of immigration but can be accounted for by a model that allows for a larger labor supply elasticity or a higher degree of wage rigidity for older than for young workers. We further show that the employment response is almost entirely driven by diminished inflows of natives into work rather than outflows into other areas or nonemployment, suggesting that “outsiders” shield “insiders” from the increased competition.
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